Articles and blogs have been flooding the internet over the past few days about the supposed link between the world’s favorite chocolate spread, Nutella, and cancer. This blog is not about explaining the difference between causation and correlation, nor is it about teaching readers how to identify scientific scare articles (for that, please see The Independent’s excellent article). Instead, let’s review the “connection” and take a look at the industrial chocolate market and its outlook, which is great, in part due to Nutella’s global popularity.
Palm oil and Nutella’s cancer connection: spreading lies
In May 2016, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) reported that, when processed at temperatures over 200 degrees Celsius, palm oil generates more GE, a potentially carcinogenic contaminant, than any other vegetable oils. Two other organizations (the World Health Organisation and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation) also reported the same risk. However, none of these three organizations recommended that consumers stop eating products with palm oil in them.
While the palm oil industry (worth $44 billion) has borne the brunt of the effects of these reports (with some companies boycotting products with palm oil), Nutella has recently been made an accomplice in this media case. The connection is two-fold: After a post on Reddit showed the proportions of Nutella ingredients, the internet lost its collective mind: there is that much palm oil in Nutella?! The connection between palm oil = bad and palm oil = Nutella had an immediate effect: in Italy, retail sales of Nutella fell by approximately 3% from August 2015 to August 2016. Other companies began promoting their chocolate spreads as “palm oil-free” and Ferrero, the company that produces Nutella, blames this on the drop in sales. The second reason Nutella was dragged into the debate was due to a study published in December 2016 by Worldwide Cancer Research that found a link between palm oil and the rapid spread of cancer in mice.
However, after an ad campaign discussing the safe process by which Nutella is made, Nutella saw its sales in Italy begin to rise. Globally, the reports by health organizations have had minimal effects on Nutella sales: Nutella reports that they are still growing at around 5% annually. In addition, companies in Indonesia and Malaysia (where 85% of the world’s palm oil is produced) indicate that the reports have had no effect on their European exports.
The industrial chocolate market and the chocolate spread market
Likewise, the industrial chocolate market – which includes Nutella – has not suffered due to these reports. Big chocolate companies, such as Unilever and Nestle, also use palm oil in many of their chocolate products. Technavio analysts estimate the industrial chocolate market will grow at a CAGR of 3.16% from 2016 to 2021. The year-over-year growth of the market is increasing every year (from 1.58% in 2017 to 5.01% in 2021). Europe is the biggest segment in the market, accounting for 43.7% of the market in 2016 and for 31.02% of the incremental growth of the market over the next five years, according to Technavio.
So while Nutella (or any other chocolate spread, for that matter) is not healthy for you, the cancer connections have been greatly exaggerated. It is smart to be aware of the foods you are eating, but make sure to take processes into account and not just the ingredients. After all, chicken can be extremely dangerous to eat, but you must take into consideration how it has been processed before you come to that conclusion. Don’t eat raw chicken and watch how palm oil is processed. Words to live by.
